Oil
Natural Gas
Fertilizer
Total Cost
Markets
Gas Predictor
Total estimated cost of the Strait of Hormuz closure
✎ customize
▾ assumptions
Oil:
36.5
billion barrels/year,
20
% transits the strait.
Natural Gas:
500
M metric tonnes/year,
20
% transits the strait.
Brent Crude price: $
70
/bbl.
LNG price: $
10
/MMBtu (1 tonne LNG ≈ 52 MMBtu).
Monetized CO2: $
190
/tonne (social cost of carbon).
CO2 (Oil):
430
kg of CO2 produced per barrel of oil.
CO2 (LNG): Burning 1 metric tonne of LNG releases roughly
2.76
tonnes of CO2.
Urea:
190
M tonnes/year,
32.5
% transits the strait, $
700
/tonne.
Phosphates:
237
M tonnes/year,
20
% from the region, $
725
/tonne.
Sulfur:
75
M tonnes/year,
45
% transits the strait, $
135
/tonne.
Strait of Hormuz Traffic Returns to Normal
-- days of closure
Oil & Gas
--
Yearly Oil Production Reduced
--
Barrels of Oil Not Produced
--
Cost of Oil Not Produced
--
Yearly Natural Gas Production Reduced
--
Metric Tonnes of LNG Not Produced
--
Cost of LNG Not Produced
--
Total Cost of Oil & Gas Not Produced
Fertilizer
▾
▴
Oil & Gas
Fertilizer
--
Metric Tonnes of Urea Not Produced
--
Cost of Urea Not Produced
--
Metric Tonnes of Phosphate Not Produced
--
Cost of Phosphates (DAP) Not Produced
--
Metric Tonnes of Sulfur Not Produced
--
Cost of Sulfur Not Produced
--
Total Cost of Fertilizer Not Produced
Environmental Impact
▾
Net Economic Impact
▾
▴
Fertilizer
Environmental Impact
--
Kg of CO2 from Oil Not Produced
--
Monetized CO2 Impact (Oil)
--
Kg of CO2 from LNG Not Produced
--
Monetized CO2 Impact (LNG)
--
Total Kg of CO2 Not Produced
--
Total Monetized CO2 Impact
Net Economic Impact
▾
▴
Environmental Impact
▴
Fertilizer
Net Economic Impact
--
Total Cost of Oil & Gas Not Produced
--
Total Cost of Fertilizer Not Produced
--
Total Cost of Stranded Physical Assets
--
Total Monetized CO2 Impact
--
Net Economic Impact
Adjust Assumptions
×
Oil & Gas
Yearly Oil Production (Billion Barrels)
Default: 36.5
Oil Production Reduction (%)
Default: 20%
Yearly Natural Gas Production (Million Metric Tonnes)
Default: 500
Natural Gas Reduction (%)
Default: 20%
Commodity Prices
Brent Crude Oil Price ($/bbl)
Default: live from Yahoo Finance
LNG Price ($/MMBtu)
Default: $10/MMBtu (1 tonne ≈ 52 MMBtu)
Urea Price ($/Metric Tonne)
Default: $700
Phosphate (DAP) Price ($/Metric Tonne)
Default: $725
Sulfur Price ($/Metric Tonne)
Default: $135
Fertilizer
Global Urea Production (Million Tonnes/Year)
Default: 190
Urea Reduction (%)
Default: 32.5%
Global Phosphate Production (Million Tonnes/Year)
Default: 237
Phosphate Reduction (%)
Default: 20%
Global Sulfur Production (Million Tonnes/Year)
Default: 75
Sulfur Reduction (%)
Default: 45%
Environmental
Include Environmental Offset
CO2 per Barrel of Oil (kg)
Default: 430 kg
CO2 per Tonne of LNG (tonnes)
Default: 2.76 tonnes
Social Cost of Carbon ($/tonne CO2)
Default: $190
Date Strait Closed
Default: 2026-03-01
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